mardi 5 avril 2011

Tous égaux devant les catastrophes?


On dirait que les catastrophes se multiplient ces dernières années. Comme si la nature prenait sa revanche sur l’humain, après des années d’abus. Mais est-ce que ces tragédies se produisent équitablement à la surface de la Terre? Il semble que non!

En 2005, Slate.com indiquait que la région américaine de Storrs (dans le Connecticut) était la plus abritée des catastrophes naturelles. Nous avons voulu savoir quels pays sont les moins exposés aux déchaînements de la nature. Probablement l’Estonie, le Qatar, Bahreïn, les Emirats arabes unis et Andorre. EM-DAT, la base de données internationale sur les catastrophes naturelles, qui répertorie plus de 11.000 événements majeurs, n’a enregistré d’inondation, de sécheresse, de séisme ou de tempêtes meurtrières dans aucun de ces pays de 1900 à 2009.

Gérée par le Centre belge de recherche sur l’épidémiologie des catastrophes (CRED), EM-DAT est la référence sur ce sujet. Précision utile pour ceux qui n’envisageraient les catastrophes naturelles que comme des fléaux de Dieu, qui échappent totalement au contrôle de l’homme: les «catastrophes naturelles» englobent également des sinistres dans lesquels l’homme a une part de responsabilité, tels que la famine, le choléra et les feux de forêt.

Il faut savoir que les données d’EM-DAT sont incomplètes, en particulier concernant les années qui précèdent sa création (1988). Cette base de données n’inventorie aucune catastrophe importante à Singapour, malgré les inondations de 1978 qui ont fait sept morts. (Dix marins émiriens ont été portés disparus après le passage du cyclone Gonu. Difficile de savoir si cet événement a été intentionnellement exclu de la base de données EM-DAT ou s’il s’agit d’une omission involontaire.) Il est possible que le Qatar et que d’autres pays «épargnés» dans cette documentation n’aient pas été en réalité aussi chanceux qu’on pourrait le croire.

La mortalité n’est pas le facteur qui reflète nécessairement le mieux la vulnérabilité d’un pays aux catastrophes naturelles. Cependant, les statistiques de décès font partie des données les plus exactes. C’est aussi un moyen pratique de comparer deux événements et les dégâts qu’ils ont causés – par exemple un cyclone ou un séisme – là où un simple relevé des occurrences (le nombre de catastrophes) n’apporterait pas grand-chose. Mais le bilan des morts fausse quelque peu les résultats: il y aura forcément moins de victimes dans les pays à faible densité démographique et dont les habitants sont en meilleure santé.

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